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Feb 18, 2026
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AVOID
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"Palantir trading at 80 times sales when ANTHROPIC... [was] at a lower multiples... valuations... were stretched... missing in the software sector right now [is] long term revenue visibility." Public software valuations are disconnected from reality when compared to faster-growing private AI firms. The sector is undergoing a regime shift where traditional metrics (seat growth) are being replaced by "token consumption." Until companies can prove visibility under these new metrics, they remain in a "penalty box." AVOID high-multiple software stocks that have not yet bridged the gap to consumption-based revenue visibility. Market sentiment could ignore fundamentals and continue to bid up high-beta tech names during the bounce. |
Bloomberg Markets
Tech Stocks Bounce Back as AI Concerns Begin ...
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Feb 18, 2026
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LONG
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"CapEx increase is going to memory, which has really gone up so much because of the shortages... how much is for component increases right now." While there is uncertainty about the ROI for companies *spending* the CapEx, the destination of that capital is clear: it is flowing into components with pricing power. Memory shortages are driving up costs, meaning memory producers are capturing the value of the increased spending. LONG the Memory Sector as the direct beneficiary of supply constraints and inflationary CapEx cycles. Resolution of supply chain shortages could soften pricing power; broader tech pullback could reduce overall CapEx budgets. |
Bloomberg Markets
Tech Stocks Bounce Back as AI Concerns Begin ...
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Feb 18, 2026
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WATCH
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"ANTHROPIC, which is growing, you know, almost ten X in the past 12 months... private valuation, they were at a lower multiples." Anthropic serves as the rational benchmark for AI valuations. Its lower multiple despite higher growth highlights the overvaluation in public proxies like Palantir. WATCH Anthropic's valuation dynamics as a leading indicator for where public AI multiples should settle. Private market opacity makes real-time tracking difficult. |
Bloomberg Markets
Tech Stocks Bounce Back as AI Concerns Begin ...
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Feb 18, 2026
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LONG
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Meta is aggressively "locking in that NVIDIA supply" to ensure their frontier models are trained on the latest clusters. In the AI arms race, compute capacity is the primary bottleneck. By securing millions of processors, Meta ensures it remains competitive with OpenAI and Google. The "circularity" of the deal suggests a strategic partnership that prioritizes Meta's access to hardware. Long META as they secure the necessary infrastructure to maintain a leading position in AI model development. Massive CapEx spend could weigh on free cash flow if AI monetization lags. |
Bloomberg Markets
Meta Will Deploy Millions of Nvidia Processor...
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Feb 18, 2026
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WATCH
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Anthropic models are trained on Google TPUs and Amazon chips, not Nvidia GPUs. While Nvidia is dominant, big tech peers are actively building defensive moats via custom silicon to reduce reliance on Nvidia. However, Mandeep notes Nvidia's new chips offer "30x more token output," suggesting custom silicon still lags in raw performance for frontier training. Watch these names to see if their internal silicon can close the performance gap with Nvidia's Blackwell architecture. If their custom chips fail to scale, they will be forced to pay a premium to Nvidia, hurting margins. |
Bloomberg Markets
Meta Will Deploy Millions of Nvidia Processor...
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Feb 18, 2026
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LONG
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Meta is not only deploying Nvidia GPUs but is also "talking about using NVIDIA CPUs," moving away from the traditional x86 architecture. Historically, an AI server rack consisted of Nvidia GPUs paired with Intel or AMD CPUs. By switching to Nvidia's own CPUs (Grace), Nvidia captures 100% of the silicon value in the rack. This increases revenue per unit and deepens the competitive moat by creating a tightly integrated, proprietary ecosystem. Long NVDA as they successfully expand from being a GPU accelerator company to a full-stack data center provider. Regulatory intervention regarding market dominance or supply chain bottlenecks at TSMC. |
Bloomberg Markets
Meta Will Deploy Millions of Nvidia Processor...
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Feb 18, 2026
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SHORT
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Mandeep states, "Previously, AMD or Intel was the supplier of CPUs to the data centers for Meta. Now, with NVIDIA selling CPUs, that could have an impact on AMD." This represents a direct loss of socket share in the highest-growth segment of the market (AI Hyperscalers). If the industry standard shifts to Nvidia GPUs paired with Nvidia CPUs (Grace-Hopper/Blackwell), the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for AMD and Intel in AI data centers shrinks significantly. Short/Avoid legacy CPU makers as they face displacement in the AI value chain. Nvidia's CPUs could underperform, or hyperscalers might maintain vendor diversity to avoid vendor lock-in. |
Bloomberg Markets
Meta Will Deploy Millions of Nvidia Processor...
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Feb 17, 2026
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LONG
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Anthropic is hitting snags in Pentagon contract talks due to "guardrails" against mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. The Pentagon insists on using AI as long as it follows the law. The military prioritizes capability and speed over self-imposed ethical guardrails. If Anthropic refuses to engage on lethal/surveillance AI, the Pentagon will funnel that capital to contractors who *will* do the work, specifically Palantir (PLTR), which already specializes in this data integration. Long PLTR (as the beneficiary of competitors' ethical hesitation). Government budget cuts or PR backlash against military AI. |
Bloomberg Markets
Open Interest 2/17/2026...
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